Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.402063 5.225425 6.138687 7.223722 8.474465 9.867675 11.533622
2025-05-11 3.083712 4.161334 5.492256 7.242417 9.466998 12.182499 15.728097
2025-05-18 2.185592 3.304108 4.821241 6.996073 9.993846 13.934865 19.452558
2025-05-25 1.577145 2.643638 4.216896 6.649427 10.243999 15.274032 22.735197
2025-06-01 1.224016 2.250404 3.881029 6.573073 10.793714 17.016652 26.697962
2025-06-08 0.967906 1.940099 3.594012 6.491847 11.281743 18.676494 30.667988
2025-06-15 0.845312 1.825578 3.593522 6.850027 12.473981 21.489894 36.610457
2025-06-22 0.703888 1.639368 3.428147 6.889905 13.129524 23.503026 41.469273
2025-06-29 0.586827 1.470999 3.259632 6.887538 13.694595 25.400749 46.285461
2025-07-06 0.490289 1.320783 3.095074 6.859286 14.195604 27.218156 51.101115
2025-07-13 0.463662 1.321847 3.234931 7.436570 15.866280 31.192911 59.890423
2025-07-20 0.411938 1.249725 3.205743 7.664887 16.892455 34.101711 67.036129
2025-07-27 0.368812 1.191446 3.203084 7.961596 18.112490 37.518648 75.452129
2025-08-03 0.313072 1.084633 3.070090 7.959610 18.737909 39.898005 82.203486
2025-08-10 0.252818 0.946181 2.832526 7.684174 18.760469 41.126069 86.916310
2025-08-17 0.199524 0.810103 2.570421 7.304951 18.506781 41.778022 90.571726
2025-08-24 0.167271 0.730552 2.440014 7.221087 18.888235 43.725369 96.873252
2025-08-31 0.140281 0.659228 2.316395 7.132516 19.243988 45.642336 103.246277
2025-09-07 0.130969 0.650276 2.372567 7.521471 20.757615 50.106003 115.059254
2025-09-14 0.113714 0.603723 2.304725 7.564733 21.443890 52.846791 123.511638
2025-09-21 0.097912 0.556778 2.225107 7.562149 22.015509 55.379471 131.697748
2025-09-28 0.083878 0.511540 2.140592 7.531464 22.511310 57.779376 139.759182
2025-10-05 0.083134 0.528524 2.272296 8.158103 24.759622 64.293919 157.044617